Empirical evidence of the myopic nature of special purpose local sales taxes to fight crime

Background: Local governments increasingly rely on sales taxes to raise revenue, often justifying the need for a local tax increase with specific programmatic goal, such as better education or transportation. In Washington State, legislature explained that was necessary support criminal justice because requires more police, courts, and jails. Objective: Informed by decades of literature questioning efficacy fighting crime through jails, objective this study seeks use empirical evidence explain whether social fabric offers indicators can define thus inform policy so revenue may be used prevent rather than fight it. Method: The compiled 29-year history 36 variables across all 39 counties determine is predictable what most predictive crime. Pearson coefficients determination were calculated identify cross-sectional associations between variables. An ARIMAX model then constructed test power multivariate time series. Results: finds observations how child grows up are consistently explanatory There reason believe effective action state take promote leverage their taxing ensure every (a) has access food basic necessities, (b) raised in safe stable home, (c) graduates from college.